It is now beyond doubt that the
ANC is spiralling out of control, twisting in the ever widening gyre, displaced
from its once undisputed heights as the oldest liberation party in Africa. The
freefall has been felt across all sectors in society and is the central subject
of discussion in homes across South Africa. Although many commentators are
hesitant to label this political moment as a critical turning point for the
ANC, it is – in my view – indisputable that this is a critical tipping point.
The scales have, after eight
years, finally tipped against President Jacob Zuma and his leadership. They
stand alone, and the winds of change threaten to consign them to the dustbin of
history. They will resist, they will fight and they will sabotage, but some
will turn against their former allies in the Zuma leadership and pledge
allegiance to the winds of change. This is just simple opportunistic politics
at work. Those who still have a future in government and the ANC will do what
they can to redeem themselves from the ‘rot’ that has infected the ANC at all
levels.
Already, the signs are clear that
both Fikile Mbalula and Malusi Gigaba – the new Ministers of Police and
Finance, respectively – have chosen to backtrack from the Zuma leadership’s
front line. Fikile Mbalula is engaged in a court battle with the former –
illegally appointed – head of the Hawks Special Investigation Unit (i.e. Berning Ntlemeza), and Malusi
Gigaba has considerably diluted the rhetoric around ‘radical economic
transformation’, equating it with “inclusive growth” instead. These turnarounds
are significant. Both Mbalula and Gigaba are young politicians – ex-heads of
the ANC youth league – and have a promising future in government. President
Zuma is a lame duck president who is on his way out, whether through recall or
the end of his term in 2019; they have to think about their futures beyond his
leadership.
Even older, more seasoned leaders
such as the Minister of Public Enterprises Lynne Brown have opted to evade
taking a stand for the Zuma power elite that she once supported wholeheartedly.
Instead of taking direct action against the Eskom board for its ridiculously
inept and blatantly deceptive ‘re-employment’ of Brian Molefe as Chief
Executive – i.e. claiming that he had taken early retirement at 50 after he had
very publicly resigned last year to clear his name and act in the interests of
“good corporate governance”, only to be later sworn in as a member of Parliament
(which clearly forbids him from remaining in the employ of the state) –
Minister Brown instead chose to leave the decision in the hands of the courts
and has called for an independent inquiry into Eskom and its practises. It is a
significant climb-down, that has led many to intimate that Brown had been put under pressure to
support the return of Brian Molefe as Chief Executive. Indeed, former Minister
of Finance Pravin Gordhan questioned her directly at yesterday’s parliamentary committee whether she had been instructed to support Brian Molefe’s reappointment by the
board.
The tripartite alliance, on which
the ANC rests its broad-based legitimacy (i.e. with the South African Communist
Party and the Council for South African Trade Unions) is in tatters. Both
alliance partners of the ANC have called for President Zuma to step down, and
COSATU has gone as far as to pronounce that President Zuma will not be welcome
to address COSATU gatherings. Last month he was booed off stage at a COSATU
event, which had to be cancelled because of the anger that the crowd directed
at him.
Last week the South African
Council of Churches – perhaps the most reputable non-partisan body, which
played a key role in mobilising mass action against the Apartheid state –
announced that it was ready to question the moral legitimacy of the state. In
an event that ran almost three hours, where they detailed SACC had learnt from
its Unburdening Panel, which sought to provide a safe, confessional space for
those who had been compromised by corrupt activities in government and the
state. It was clear to the SACC that the South African state was under its most
extreme threat that it has ever been under democratic rule. Possessing the the most
formidable, politically neutral force for public action in South Africa, the
SACC’s entry into the fray over the collapse of the ruling party speaks volumes
for the desperate crisis that the ANC has plunged the country into.
Government and the legislature
have become all but dysfunctional, sabotaging itself and pulling in different
directions, seemingly over every decision it needs to take. The only unity
currently exists between opposition parties, who have joined hands in an all
out effort to counter what has broadly become known as “state capture”.
Government is in paralysis, and this is a direct consequence of the paralysis
within the ANC itself, which finds it difficult to break ranks with its elected
ruler, his leadership and the “power elite” that they act in concert with to
execute their programme of state capture.
Opposition from within the ANC to
the Zuma leadership (and by extension his network) has mounted, but it remains
to be seen how effective it will prove to be in bringing about his removal. It
is a sad sight to behold; a once vaunted liberation party – one that brokered
the most significant political transition and humanitarian constitution – now
lies defeated by its own hand. It is foreseeable that in the absence of any
significant ability to self-correct, the ANC will not remain in power after the
2019 elections.
With regular crises in service
delivery (from water to electricity, healthcare, education, social grants,
housing), debilitating crises that have arrested heavily indebted (i.e.
effectively bankrupt) state owned entities and companies (SOEs/SOCs) such as
Eskom, SAA, Transnet, SABC, etc. and the mounting unemployment, inequality,
poverty, rising prices of services and goods, and an slow-growing economy that
has been declared junk status deterring foreign investment; it is clear that
the ordinary citizenry are running out of options to meet their day-to-day
needs. Their leaders seem incapable of taking the actions that are necessary to
safeguard the public interest and the public good. The broad perception is that
it is no longer the ANC itself who is in control of decision-making, but a
behind-the-scenes patronage network that has gathered around the leadership of
President Jacob Zuma.
It remains to be seen whether the
tipping point will prove to be a turning point for South Africa in real terms,
that is; whether the President and his leadership will be recalled by the ANC
or forced out of office by broad-based public protest. But what is clear is
that there is now tacit agreement from all sectors of society, as well as the
entirety of political leadership in the country – perhaps even within the Zuma
network itself – that the country cannot possibly endure under this kind of
leadership and enjoy a prosperous future that is characterised by transparent
and ethical governance. More of the same is bound to erode the South African
state to such a degree that it no longer functions as a capable bureaucracy,
and to split and polarise the political and social realms to such an extent
that society itself becomes dysfunctional.
The phrase, “the fish rots from
the head” has come to characterise the plight of current day South Africa.
There is no skirting around the fact that the loss of legitimacy of the ANC
government has plunged South Africa
into its largest crisis since the decline of the Apartheid state in the 1980’s.
This crisis is multidimensional. It is simultaneously a crisis that is constitutional,
governmental, economic, social and political; one that threatens to bring
about a perfect storm. South Africa has stood on the edge of the precipice before,
and has managed to marshal its considerable socio-political resources to convert
tragedy and adversity into emancipatory transition and reformation. There is little
doubt that it is time for South Africa, as a country, to gather its strength and
take back the reins of power from those who have abused it, and do the hard work
of restoring its national sanctity again.
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